2024 NFL Draft First Round Picks

Overall Pick 2: J.J. McCarthy (+1000)

First off, let me say that I expect pick 2 to be Jayden Daniels, but at -600, there is so little juice for the squeeze. Not worth it. The McCarthy payoff is pretty good. He has underrated tools. Moreover, he almost certainly crushed the "Top Golf" event that the Commies hosted.

First Defensive Lineman/Edge Drafted: Byron Murphy (+280)

Murphy is the best defensive lineman in this draft. Dallas Turner is a good player but he isn't special. Murphy is. Murphy certainly isn't Aaron Donald, so that talk needs to stop, but he might be 95% of Quinnen Williams. And folks, that's pretty damned special. Turner will be a 8.5 sack a year guy for a long time. But so will Murphy and that's so much more impressive and disruptive on the interior. It does give me pause that the Falcons pick at 8 and need edge worse than tackle but there is a good chance they'll trade out and if they stay, they may take Murphy anyway. In any case, Murphy at +280 will give a nice return.

Houston Texans, Position of First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+3000)

Now, look, I know what you are thinking. The Texans are loaded at WR. They just traded for Stephon Diggs. But what did they do after they traded for Diggs? They altered his contract, shortening it to a year. And yes, they have Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Robert Woods. But Woods is over the hill and Tank Dell is a slot only player. It would make sense to pick someone to play some limited snaps this year. And the second round is a sweet spot for receiver. Rickey Pearsall would be good value at 42. Or they could go with a Troy Franklin if he is still on the board. Or maybe an Xavier Leggett or Keon Coleman would be good value here.

Do I think the Texans will select WR with their first picks? No, probably not. But you are getting +3000 odds.